- The Philadelphia baseball team has a knack for winning the World Series at the start of a recession.
- Although correlation does not equal causation, superstitious investors may watch the next games with anxiety.
- The Philadelphia Phillies trail the Houston Astros two games to three going into Saturday night’s game.
Superstitious investors might have their eyes on this Saturday’s World Series Championship Game 6 as the Philadelphia Phillies take on the Houston Astros.
That’s because Philadelphia baseball teams have a knack for winning the World Series around the same time a recession hits and the stock market crashes.
“Any time a Philadelphia team wins it all, bad things happen soon after,” Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick said. said at the end of last month.
Of course, correlation does not equal causation.
“The irony is not lost on us that our city’s baseball success has coincided with extremely poor economic and market performance. The beauty of correlation and causation, however, is that it can be difficult to determine the directionality of a relationship,” Prudent Management Associates’ Daniel Berkowitz told Insider.
Detrick agrees with Berkowitz. “We never suggest investing based on who wins the World Series, but it’s certainly interesting,” Detrick said.
“If we flip the premise, we could say instead that extremely poor economic and market performance is associated with the postseason success of a Philadelphia baseball team. If so, given the liquidation simultaneous stock and bond markets this year, we like the Phillies’ odds,” Berkowitz said.
Here’s a brief history of Philadelphia championship wins coinciding with the pain of American investors and the broader economy.
The 1910 World Series: Philadelphia Athletics beat Chicago Cubs 4 to 1 – 25% Bear Market
The Panic of 1910-1911 materialized when the government began to tighten enforcement of the Sherman Antitrust Act, which regulates competition among businesses and seeks to break up monopolies. The panic led to a 25% sell-off in the stock market.
The 1911 World Series: Philadelphia Athletics beat New York Giants 4 to 2 – Recession
As the Panic of 1910-1911 continued, the wider economy went into recession for all 12 months of the year. The government’s continued enforcement of the Sherman Antitrust Act led to the breakup of the Standard Oil Company monopoly.
The 1913 World Series: Philadelphia Athletics beat New York Giants 4 to 1 – Recession
A year-long recession materialized as output and real income declined. Meanwhile, World War I began a year later.
1929 World Series: Philadelphia Athletics beat Chicago Cubs 4 to 1 – Stock market crash
Just two weeks after the Athletics win, the stock market crashed amid continued bank runs, high tariffs and declining consumer sentiment. The stock market ended the year down 12%, but did not return to its peak for about 25 years.
The 1930 World Series: Philadelphia Athletics beat St. Louis Cardinals 4-2 – The Great Depression
The US economy entered a depression that would last nearly four years. Peak unemployment soared to 21% while GDP and industrial production fell sharply.
1980 World Series: Philadelphia Phillies beat Kansas City Royals 4 to 2 – Double dip recession
As Fed Chairman Paul Volcker fought stubborn inflation with aggressive interest rate hikes, the US economy plunged into a brief recession, which was then followed by a rapid recovery. This recovery was then followed by a deep recession as businesses adjusted to exorbitant interest rates, which peaked at nearly 20%.
2008 World Series: Philadelphia Phillies beat Tampa Bay Rays 4 to 1 – The Great Financial Crisis
An ongoing housing crisis turned into a financial panic as banks went insolvent due to their exposure to subprime mortgages. The pain quickly spread to automakers that were too indebted and affected by a decline in consumption.
“From World War I to the Great Depression to the financial crisis, it all happened after a team from the City of Brotherly Love won it all. Is it random? Probably, but to be sure, the team at Carson Investment Research is shooting for the Astros,” Detrick told Insider.