A chance bettor from Colorado is poised to win big on the World Series, a potential score amplified by a bookmaker’s miscalculation.
On April 13, a week into the Major League Baseball season, a Colorado bettor placed a $50 futures bet with BetMGM on the Houston Astros beat the Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series at 2,500 to 1. Nearly seven months later, the Astros and Phillies are in the World Series, and the bettor stands to win $125,000, if Houston wins. The bettor could also lock in a profit by placing a hedge bet on the underdog Phillies. A $10,000 bet on Philadelphia at the current series price of +160, for example, would guarantee a profit of $15,950 if the Phillies upset or a payout of $115,000 if the Astros won their initial $50 bet.
The bettor declined maintenance requests but provided quotes to BetMGM.
“It’s been surreal living and dying with the Phillies from April until ‘Philtober,'” the bettor said. “Thanks to the Astros for taking care of business and the Dodgers for choking on business as usual.”
The punter added, “I don’t hedge.”
Either way, the bettor is expecting a World Series sweat that might be more lucrative than it should be – as the odds on the bet were longer than they should have been. ‘be. Instead of 2,500 to 1, the odds on the Astros’ victory over the Phillies in the World Series should have been closer to 250 to 1, if not shorter.
The easiest way to create odds on an exact outcome of a World Series, months in advance, is to multiply the projected champion’s chances of winning the World Series with the other team’s chances of winning the pennant. At the time of the bet, the Astros were 10-1 to win the World Series, and the Phillies, despite a slow start, were about 10-1 to win the National League. Using the traditional method, the odds would have been around 100 to 1, not 2,500 to 1. Different approaches could have produced longer, but unlikely odds near 2,500-1. In comparison, the odds offered on the Texas Rangers beat the Miami Marlins in the World Series were also 2,500-1 at BetMGM.
“We were probably a little aggressive on these,” Jason Scott, vice president of trading at Bet MGM, told ESPN in good spirits, acknowledging an error in the odds-creation process.
Gross odds errors, often referred to as palpable errors, can be a controversial topic in the betting community. Data entry errors or typos can cause sportsbooks to publish the wrong lines, sometimes making a heavy favorite an underdog, for example. Sportsbooks often include stipulations regarding blatant odds errors and in the past have fought to avoid paying out on bets placed on the wrong lines. Scott, however, made no indication that BetMGM would go down this route.
BetMGM offered the price at 2,500-1 for two weeks, but only took six bets on an exact Astros-over Phillies World Series outcome. Scott said the $50 bet was “about 90%” of the total amount wagered on the inflated odds.
“I’m more worried about Mattress Mack beating us than him, to be honest,” Scott said.
Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale, a Houston furniture store owner known for placing big bets to mitigate promotions risk, placed a $2 million bet with BetMGM on the Astros to win the World Series. In total, McIngvale has about $10 million on the Astros in the World Series with a chance to make $75 million. He’ll need it: After placing his seven-figure bets in June, McIngvale offered to reimburse customers who spent $3,000 at his Gallery Furniture store by doubling their money if the Astros win the World Series.
“It’s not nice, but we can deal with it,” Scott said of the liability caused by McIngvale’s bet on the Astros.
BetMGM said it would send the Colorado bettor to Friday’s World Series opener in Houston.