NFL odds and picks
Sean Koerner: The Giants are 5-1 this season despite all of their games being one-score type.
Being one of the most improved teams thanks to Brian Daboll’s wise coaching while being one of the luckiest teams are two factors that can be true. In fact, New York ranks first in our luck ranking and the public didn’t take them seriously, until this week.
62% of the action came on the Giants and I think now is the time not only to fade them, but also to support the Jaguars, who were the fourth unluckiest team according to our rankings. That’s a luck rating differential of 27 between the two. Since we started tracking in Week 3, teams with a Luck Differential over 16 have moved to 14-2 ATS.
The Jaguars are a more complete team – they rank eighth in DVOA while the Giants are 18th. We have a situation where both teams should probably have records closer to 3-3.
Another key to this game: Trevor Lawrence has played much better against the blitz this year. That’s critical considering the Giants blitzed at the league’s highest rate under defensive coordinator Wink Martindale.
Here’s how Lawrence ranked against the blitz (out of 34 QBs):
ANY/A: 13th
QB rating: 15th
AEP/game: 5th
My instinct, like many others, probably thinks Giants +3 is a giveaway. However, when you take a step back from the records of both teams and how they got there, you realize the Jaguars are probably the better team and the books want you to fade them.
I’m locking the Jaguars at -3 and there’s a chance we’ll see that number hit -3.5 before kick-off.
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Sean Koerner: Russell Wilson was excluded from this match and Brett Rypien will start in his place.
The Broncos likely would have been 3.5-4 point favorites had Wilson been healthy. I have the drop off from Wilson to Rypien right around five points. However, crossing a key number out of three here means I would only close the gap to around Denver -1.5.
Rypien is a below-average backup, but he’s in a good spot where the Jets probably won’t score much against the Broncos’ strong defense that’s currently ranked second in the DVOA. It’s a game where Denver can probably build on their running game and keep it close.
The crowd is all over the Jets here with 70% of the action on them. However, it is also a place where our Luck Rankings show a differential of 21 (Jets 9th against Broncos 30th).
I’m on Broncos +1.5 and think they should be slight favorites.
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Sean Koerner: 70% of the action was over the top, but I think the game is shaping up better for the underside.
The Raiders opened the season with the fourth-highest early success rate (in neutral situations) from Weeks 1-3. However, they have relied on the ground game in their last two competitions and are the 10th team the most popular during the first tests.
Look for the Raiders to rely on Josh Jacobs given they are seven-point home favorites, facing a Texans run defense that ranks 29th in DVOA and will be without Darren Waller.
The Texans will likely counter by relying on RB rookie Dameon Pierce, who has seen more than 20 runs in two of the last three games.
The Raiders are much better against the run (15th in DVOA) than against the pass (30th), and Davis Mills is unlikely to take advantage of that.
The second-year QB has struggled this season, ranking 30th in ANY/A, 25th in QB Rating and 31st in EPA/play. Mills could face a bit of pressure against a rested squad (after a bye) with two talented rushers in Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones.
I’m projecting that closer to 44 and would only bet it at 45.5.
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Sean Koerner: The 49ers welcome Trent Williams, Nick Bosa and Jimmie Ward this week, which should help give their offense and defense a massive boost.
They also just traded for Christian McCaffery, who will make his team debut. He probably won’t see much playing time, but he should still provide a boost on offense, which will be essential against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
I project the 49ers as 1.5 point favorites here and like having them at +1.
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