Joe Musgrove has beaten the Phillies for the most part, and given his current form, needs to be supported on the mound tonight. Find out why we trust the Padres’ star pitcher with our top MLB picks for Game 3 of the NLCS.
NLCS Game 3 takes place Friday night between the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies.
San Diego evened the series with an 8-5 win Wednesday night at Petco Park. The NLCS travel to Citizens Bank Park for Friday night’s game.
Who will get closer to a place in the 2022 World Series? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for the San Diego Padres against the Philadelphia Phillies on October 21. Also dive deeper with our Padres vs. Phillies trends and previews courtesy of EV Analytics.
Padres vs Phillies best odds
Padres vs Phillies picks and predictions
Joe Musgrove threw a solid ball into the stretch.
Musgrove was money during the Padres playoffs, throwing seven scoreless frames against the Mets in New York in the NLWC round, and followed that up with a solid NLDS home win over the Dodgers.
The Padres pitcher allowed two earned runs in 13 playoff innings. He’s scatter seven hits and strikeouts 13 in these playoffs, and he has a tasty game against the Phillies on Friday.
Musgrove held Philadelphia to a .211/.242/.337/.579 slant line with 36 strikeouts and three homers on 95 at-bats. The Phillies hit Musgrove for six earned runs and a pair of bombs at Petco in June, but it’s another Padres team, and I expect the right-hander to throw a gem Friday night.
The Phillies offense ranks ninth in the game against right-handers – with a 22% strikeout rate alongside a fifth-best ISO – but ranks 12th in wRC+. They have big bats but sometimes struggle to craft.
Ranger Suarez was retired after three innings in his only playoff appearance of the season, giving up an earned run with five walks and five puffs in what turned out to be an away loss to the Atlanta Braves.
This collection of Padres bats haven’t been very productive in their career against Suarez, posting a .170/.235/.277/.512 slant line with one home and 10 strikeouts on 47 at bats against the left-hander of the Phillies. .
This season, San Diego ranked 18th against left-handed pitchers. They’ve hit in 20% of their at-bats with a 23rd-ranked ISO, and their 15th-best wRC+ of 103 suggests they’re struggling to build runs against left-handers as well.
The bullpens count in the MLB playoffs, and San Diego has the advantage with the fourth-best ERA team (2.05) during the playoffs. Conversely, the Phillies’ pen has struggled this postseason, posting a 4.00 ERA, and its 12 earned runs allowed are last among active playoff clubs.
Outside of that tough six innings earlier this season, Musgrove has dominated this collection of bats for the Phillies, and we expect that trend to continue on Friday as he’s currently in elite form,
Suarez is on a short leash in the playoffs but has thrown well against San Diego this season. Any sign of trouble on Friday will likely end his night, and putting things back to a struggling bullpen will suit the Padres just fine.
my best bet: Parents’ moneyline (-107 at Pinnacle)
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Padres vs. Phillies NLCS Odds
|Teams||Odds of winning the series|
|San Diego Padres||-110|
Padres vs. Phillies line of finance analysis
I thought about picking the Padres’ top five moneylines (MLB Odds of -115) as my best bet, and that’s obviously on the line. Musgrove has been outstanding through the playoffs and has a strong history against this collection of Phillies bats, while Suarez has some command issues, that which means I’ll probably make that bet too.
Musgrove has thrown 100-plus nine times and is coming off a 101-pitch outing against the Dodgers. Manager Bob Melvin trusts his pitcher, and that’s important when considering an F5 bet.
Conversely, Suarez gave up 16 free passes with 21 strikeouts on his previous 28.2 frames, which is a bit north of his 3.36 BB/9 frames allowed this season. The southpaw has thrown 100 or more pitches in five of his 29 starts, and manager Rob Thompson won’t suffer long with Suarez.
Padres closer Josh Hader has struggled for much of the season, but he’s thrown a shutout in his last 15 appearances. Meanwhile, Phillies stopper Zach Eflin has allowed four earned runs in his four playoff appearances.
San Diego was 26-20-0 as the away favorite, and Philadelphia was 9-7-0 as the home underdog.
Padres vs. Phillies Over/Under Analysis
The total opened at 7.5 and will likely remain until Las Vegas closes the game.
Musgrove left a trail of goose eggs on the stretch. The Dodgers went on a personal 20-game scoreless streak, but he’s faced a Phillies offense that beat him for six earned runs in their only meeting this season.
Suarez is everywhere. He threw 16 aimless pictures in July, so it’s all there. Since then, the southpaw has had mixed results and command issues, and it’s unclear how he’ll fare from day to day.
Over bets are 24-21-0 when the Padres are away favorites and 7-8-1 when the Phillies are home favorites.
I’m leaning into this one based on Suarez’s recent form and the Phillies’ more shaky bullpen for this Friday’s NLCS game.
Padres vs. Phillies trend you need to know
The Padres are 12-3 in their last 15 road games with a 7.0-8.5 total. find more MLB Betting Trends for Padres vs. Phillies
Padres vs Phillies game information
|Location:||Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania|
|Date:||Friday, October 21, 2022|
|First step :||7:37 p.m. ET|
Joe Musgrove (10-7, 2.93 ERA): He allowed three earned runs with 32 strikeouts in his last 29 frames. He’s throwing a solid 3.27 xERA with a 3.47 xFIP, and his 3.22 xFIP away suggests the road has been his friend this season.
Ranger Suarez (10-7, 3.65 ERA): Suarez struggled to make it into Friday’s contest, allowing 10 earned runs with 20 punches in his last 21 innings. The Phillies southpaw offers a 3.78 xERA alongside a 3.82 xFIP, but his home xFIP of 4.10 could indicate some regression is due for Suarez.
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