The San Diego Padres will host their first postseason game since 2020 when they host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Petco Park on Friday for Game 3 of the NLDS.
The Dodgers took an early series lead with a 5-3 victory in Game 1, but the Padres tied things up with their own 5-3 win in Game 2 on Wednesday. San Diego now holds home-court advantage in the five-game series as they will host the next two games.
The biggest question Friday concerns Dodgers starting pitcher Tony Gonsolin, who is still working his way back from injury. We will consider Gonsolin and others betting overview in our MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Padres on Oct. 14.
Dodgers vs Padres best odds
Dodgers vs Padres picks and predictions
When healthy, Tony Gonsolin was among the best pitchers in baseball this year. The 28-year-old right-hander went 16-1 with a 2.14 ERA, as well as an excellent .875 WHIP. Gonsolin’s numbers might have been even more impressive if he hadn’t missed around six weeks with a sprained right forearm.
The Dodgers gave Gonsolin a warm-up start before the playoffs. He pitched Oct. 3 against the Colorado Rockies, going two innings and striking out three batters. Los Angeles will be looking to get more than that from its starter on Friday, though it remains open question how far Gonsolin can go in his first playoff start.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts gave some clues. Although he acknowledged that fellow starter Dustin May is limited to four innings or 60 pitches, he told reporters that Gonsolin had racked up “over 75 pitches.” Assuming that’s true, that suggests Los Angeles wants to get four or five innings out of Gonsolin in Game 3, with the potential for a bit more if he’s effective.
With a reasonable pitch limit, it’s surprising to see punters posting very low totals for Gonsolin on Friday. His primary strike totals range from 2.5 to 3.5, depending on the site.
As a reminder, Gonsolin just struck out three batters in two innings against the Rockies. That’s very telling, because Colorado and San Diego’s profile is very similar when it comes to strikeouts. The Rockies struck out 8.21 times per game in the regular season, with the Padres (8.27) posting only slightly more strikeouts.
The Padres are no better in this regard against right-handers. San Diego has struck out 22% of its plate appearances against right-handed pitchers, compared to 20.4% against left-handers. Although the Padres are not a high hitting team overall, they start several hitters who have batted over 100 times this year, including Manny MachadoJake Cronenworth, Trent Grisham and Jurickson Profar.
Gonsolin may not be an elite batting pitcher, but everyone has swings and misses these days. He’s averaging 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings and has consistently recorded strong strikeout numbers this year, even averaging just 5.4 innings per start. In his two starts against San Diego this year, Gonsolin struck out 14 in 12.2 innings.
I expect to get a minimum of four innings from Gonsolin tonight, with a potential upside for more. With that volume, Gonsolin should plan to retire four or more padres. I take Gonsolin’s strikeout prop at over 3.5, with generous odds available at several sportsbooks.
my best bet: Tony Gonsolin Over 3.5 strikeouts (+120)
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Dodgers vs. Padres NLDS Odds
| Teams | Odds of winning the series |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | -105 |
 San Diego Padres |
-115 |
Dodgers vs. Padres moneyline analysis
The Dodgers opened Game 3 as favorites, with most venues listing Los Angeles at around -130. There has been some movement towards San Diego over the past day, however, and you can now get the Dodgers at -120 or better at many venues.
If the Dodgers can get a representative performance out of Gonsolin, they should be on their way to a 2-1 series lead. Los Angeles went 19-5 in Gonsolin’s starts this year, and he went 2-0 with a 0.71 ERA against the Padres during the regular season.
The tight funding line reflects uncertainty over how much Gonsolin will launch. As I pointed out in my analysis above, though, it looks like the Dodgers expect to get at least a few innings from him. Since Gonsolin was never a pitcher to regularly deepen games anyway, his throwing limit might not be as much of a factor as it would be for some newbies.
The Padres are home and start a full-fledged solid pitcher in Blake Snell. In three starts against Los Angeles this year, Snell had two good outings, although the Dodgers did hit him for five runs in four innings on Sept. 10 in San Diego.
Since I’m confident Gonsolin will pitch at least four innings, I like the Dodgers winning tonight. I wouldn’t pay too much to support them, though. If you can get Los Angeles to -120 or better, it’s worth betting straight on the Dodgers in Game 3.
Covers MLB betting analysis
Dodgers vs. Padres Over/Under Analysis
The total for this game has remained relatively stable, bouncing between 7.5 and 7 on various sites throughout the last day. There are strong arguments to be made for more and less, based on the exact odds you can get on the total you want.
As we’ve discussed before, both Gonsolin and Snell are capable pitchers who pitched well against their Game 3 opponents. With Thursday free, both teams will also have fully refreshed relievers to pitch on Friday, meaning we’ll see each team’s best arms if this remains a competitive game.
On the other hand, you might already know that both of these teams can score. The Dodgers led the majors with 5.21 points per game this season, while the Padres were no slouches themselves (4.37). Gonsolin may not last long, and Snell struggled in his last start, going just 3.1 innings against the New York Mets in the National League Wild Card Series.
While I’m not betting on the total here, I’m inclined to slightly favor under 7.5 points. It will be a tight game, and if we ignore the noise, we can expect strong performances from both starters. Add in the bullpen-rested bullpen, and this game leans to the Under.
Dodgers vs. Padres trend you need to know
Tony Gonsolin has struck out at least four batters in 17 of his last 21 starts. find more MLB Betting Trends for Dodgers vs. Padres
Dodgers vs Padres game information
| Location: | PETCO Park, San Diego, California |
| Date: | Friday, October 14, 2022 |
| First step : | 8:37 p.m. ET |
| TV: | fox sports 1 |
Starting pitchers
Tony Gonsolin (16-1, 2.14 ERA): Gonsolin has impressed since his rookie season in 2019, but has truly become a front-row starter in 2022. The 28-year-old made his first All-Star Game and was on course for a 20-win season before be on the injured list. with a sprained right forearm in late August.
In preparation for the playoffs, Gonsolin returned to the starting rotation on October 3 against the Rockies. He pitched just two innings, allowing one run on three hits while striking out three batters in what was essentially a warm-up appearance. Gonsolin went 2-0 with a 0.71 ERA in 12.2 innings against the Padres this year.
Blake Snell (8-10, 3.38 ERA): While Snell never regained the magic of his 2018 Cy Young Award season, he continues to post strong numbers every year. In his second season with the Padres, Snell posted a 2.80 FIP while striking out 12 batters per nine innings.
Snell went 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA in 14 three-innings against the Dodgers this season. He recently pitched against the Mets in the National League Wild Card Series, allowing two runs on four hits and six walks in 3.1 innings.
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