It was a very good week. In two ways.
One, I went 12-4. Second, I won three more matches in the head-to-head competition with MDS.
I won once again in three out of five disagreements. I went 12-4 for the week, MDS finished 9-7.
For the year, I’m now 37-26-1. The MDS is 30-33-1.
This week, we only disagree on three games. Scroll for choices.
Colts (+3.5) at Broncos
The choice of MDS: Broncos 20, Colts 10.
Florio’s review: The Broncos look worse than 2-2. Then again, the Colts look worse than 1-2-1. They also don’t have Jonathan Taylor. Which seems significant.
Florio’s choice: Broncos 17, Colts 9.
Giants (+8) vs. Packers
MDS point of view: The Giants are a surprising 3-1 and aren’t as good as this record suggests. The Packers may be better than suggested at 3-1 and should win easily.
The choice of MDS: Packers 31, Giants 13.
Florio’s review: The Packers make their first trip to London a memorable one. For the Giants, it’s forgettable.
Florio’s choice: Packers 34, Giants 16.
Steelers (+14) at Bills
MDS point of view: The Steelers are two-touchdown underdogs in what’s shaping up to be one of their worst seasons of the past half-century. They’ll keep it a little closer than two touchdowns, but the Bills will win comfortably.
The choice of MDS: Bills 30, Steelers 20.
Florio’s review: The Steelers are the last team since the merger to be 14-point underdogs. They are not good enough to win. But they are good enough to cover.
Florio’s choice: Bills 27, Steeler 17.
Chargers (-2.5) at Browns
The choice of MDS: Chargers 28, Browns 21.
Florio’s review: This one is a draw, with the advantage going to the home team.
Florio’s choice: Browns 24, Chargers 21.
Bear (+7) at Vikings
MDS point of view: Justin Fields tends more and more towards the territory of the “bust project” in its second season. The Vikings defense isn’t great, but I just don’t see the Bears offense scoring much against anyone right now.
The choice of MDS: Vikings 22, Bears 10.
Florio’s review: The Vikings have found a way to win narrowly, on a regular basis. Which is better than the last two years, when they found a way to barely lose consistently.
Florio’s choice: Vikings 27, Bears 21.
Lions (+3) at Patriots
MDS point of view: We don’t know who plays the Patriots quarterback, but any offense should score a lot against the terrible Lions defense.
The choice of MDS: Patriots 38, Lions 31.
Florio’s review: Bill Belichick will be able to slow down Detroit’s offense, and the Patriots will have enough offense to beat the Lions – especially with former Detroit coach Matt Patricia keen to secure a place on his old team .
Florio’s choice: Patriots 34, Lions 20.
Seahawks (+5) at Saints
MDS point of view: Geno Smith is off to a great start to the season, but he will come down to earth on Sunday in New Orleans.
The choice of MDS: Saints 17, Seahawks 13.
Florio’s review: The Saints are due for a win, but playing a week after the trip to London could be a factor in whether they cover the spread.
Florio’s choice: Saints 20, Seahawks 17.
Dolphins (-3.5) at the Jets
MDS point of view: Even without Tua Tagovailoathe Dolphins offense should cross against a poor Jets defense.
The choice of MDS: Dolphins 28, Jets 21.
Florio’s review: Box Teddy Bridgewater keep the offense buzzing? Can the Jets play at home like they do on the road?
Florio’s choice: Jets 23, Dolphins 20.
Falcons (+8.5) at Buccaneers
MDS point of view: Tom Brady wants to avoid its first three-game losing streak in 20 years. He will do it against a Falcons team that is playing hard but just doesn’t have the roster to compete in the NFC South.
The choice of MDS: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 20.
Florio’s review: Back in their routine, the Bucs are back to playing winning football, convincingly.
Florio’s choice: Buccaneers 30, Falcons 13.
Titans (-2.5) at Commanders
MDS point of view: I haven’t been impressed with the Titans this season, but it’s hard for me to pick commanders against anyone as long as Carson Wentz play as it is.
The choice of MDS: Titans 17, Commanders 13.
Florio’s review: The Titans are rolling. The commanders are in shock. This one is easy.
Florio’s choice: Titans 21, Commanders 10.
Texans (+7) at Jaguars
MDS point of view: The Jaguars’ rebuilding effort is progressing well. The Texans is not.
The choice of MDS: Jaguars 21, Texans 10.
Florio’s review: The Texans have owned the Jaguars for the past few years. Not this weekend.
Florio’s choice: Jaguars 27, Texans 17.
49ers (-6.5) at Panthers
MDS point of view: The Panthers appear to have made no progress in the three years that Matt Rhule has been trying to rebuild the franchise. The 49ers win this one by leaving, even with a long trip in a short week.
The choice of MDS: 49ers 30, Panthers 13.
Florio’s review: The next time Mayfield Baker bets, he should consider betting on something other than himself.
Florio’s choice: 49ers 24, Panthers 10.
Cowboys (+5.5) at Rams
MDS point of view: The Cowboys are still undefeated with Cooper Rush as a starting quarterback, but I think it ends in a close loss to the Rams.
The choice of MDS: Rams 28, Cowboys 27.
Florio’s review: This is an unofficial home game for a Cowboys team with a defense that’s almost good enough to do on LA’s offense what the 49ers did on Monday night.
Florio’s choice: Cowboys 17, Rams 13.
Eagles (-5) to the Cardinals
MDS point of view: The Eagles play great football on both sides of the ball, and they should win this one easily.
The choice of MDS: Eagles 27, Cardinals 14.
Florio’s review: This is a potential trap for the Eagles, especially with the Cowboys looming.
Florio’s choice: Eagles 34, Cardinals 21.
Bengals (+3) at Ravens
MDS point of view: Lamar Jackson plays much, much better than Joe Terrier this season, and that will make the difference on Sunday night.
The choice of MDS: Ravens 31, Bengals 21.
Florio’s review: This one is about coach John Harbaugh finding a way to end a five game losing streak at home.
Florio’s choice: Ravens 27, Bengals 23.
Raiders (+7) at Chiefs
MDS point of view: Patrick Mahomes has always played well against the Raiders, and Monday night will be no different.
The choice of MDS: Leaders 35, Raiders 20.
Florio’s review: Sorry, Raiders. Prime time in Kansas City is not the right time to face the Chiefs.
Florio’s choice: Chiefs 34, Raiders 24.