- Ian will make a final landing in South Carolina this afternoon.
- Heavy rains, flooding from storm surges, and high winds are threats in the Carolinas.
- Heavy rain will be a threat as far north and west as Virginia and Appalachia.
Hurricane Ian is heading for its final landfall today, packing threats of torrential rain, storm surge, high winds and isolated tornadoes from the Carolinas into parts of Virginia.
(AFTER: Latest updates)
Latest Status
Ian is located 250 km south-southeast of Charleson, SC, and is moving rapidly north-northeast.
Heavy rains, strong gusty winds and above normal water levels are already affecting parts of South and North Carolina.
Folly Beach, South Carolina, saw winds gusting up to 66 mph at 7:30 a.m. EDT.
Several roads have been closed due to flooding in the Charleston metro area this morning. Winds blew up to 40 mph at the airport.
Ian is expected to make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane on the upper coast of South Carolina this afternoon.
From there it will weaken to a tropical storm by later Friday and become a remnant area of low pressure over North Carolina on Saturday.
Projected path and latest storm information
(The area shaded in red indicates the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It is important to note that impacts (especially heavy rain, high waves, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone generally spread to the beyond its intended path.)
Current watches, warnings
A hurricane warning has been issued for areas along and near the South Carolina coast, including Hilton Head Island, Charleston and Myrtle Beach, and for part of the North Carolina coast eastward. north to Cape Fear. This means that hurricane conditions are expected in those areas on Friday.
A storm surge warning remains in effect along the Atlantic Coast from the Flagler-Volusia County line in northeast Florida north to Cape Fear, North Carolina, including the St. Johns River in Florida and also the Lower Neuse River in North Carolina. This means that life-threatening flooding from rising waters moving inland from the coastline is expected.
Tropical storm warnings continue for parts of eastern Georgia through much of South Carolina and most of central and eastern North Carolina.
Expected impacts
Storm
The map below shows possible storm peak flooding, if it occurs at the time of high tide, according to the National Hurricane Center.
On Friday, the storm surge is expected to continue causing flooding on the Atlantic side of northeast Florida and the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina and eastern North Carolina.
Major coastal flooding is expected in Charleston, SC at high tide around noon today. Moderate coastal flooding is forecast around the same time in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.
wind threat
Scattered power outages and tree damage could occur in areas subject to hurricane and tropical storm warnings, particularly in the Carolinas.
The map below shows where sustained tropical storm or hurricane force winds are in progress since the last advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Precipitation, river floods
Heavy rain is another dangerous threat from the Carolinas to Virginia and Appalachia.
Here is the latest rainfall forecast from the National Hurricane Center.
-Northeastern South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, locally up to 12 inches.
– Northern and central South Carolina, North Carolina and Southern Virginia: 3 to 6 inches, locally up to 8 inches.
Heavy rains in these areas could trigger flash floods and river floods. Further south, record major river flooding is expected to continue in parts of Florida through early next week.
Tornadoes
A few tornadoes are possible Friday from eastern South Carolina to eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia.
History and statistics of Hurricane Ian
Ian’s debut came from a tropical wave in the Atlantic battling dry air and wind shear caused by Hurricane Fiona.
Eventually it became a major hurricane near the west Cuba before bringing its extreme winds and storm surges to Florida.
Ian’s American Landings
Ian’s eye made its first landing near Cayo Costa around 3:05 p.m. EDT. Maximum sustained winds were estimated at nearly 150 mph, making it a strong Category 4.
It’s the exactly the same point where Hurricane Charley made landfall in 2004 as a Category 4. Both hurricanes had winds of 150 mph at landfall.
Hurricane Ian made its second landfall at 4:35 p.m. in Pirate Harbor, or just south of Punta Gorda, with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph.
This landfall tied for the 4th strongest landfall by wind speed for a hurricane in Florida, According to Phil Klotzbachtropical scientist at Colorado State University.
The rear of Ian’s Wrath continued to produce additional surges and wind damage in Southwest Florida for hours after touchdown.
Wind
Winds blew 40 to 80 mph in Key West on Tuesday through early Wednesday, where Ian also produced the third highest storm surge in over 100 years.
The highest wind gust was 140 mph in Cape Coral, Florida. The highest sustained winds reported were 115 mph at a private weather station near Port Charlotte, Florida. This station also recorded a wind gust of 132 mph.
Winds blew over 100 mph in Punta Gorda, Florida for 30 minutes at 4 p.m. on September 28 and continued to report wind gusts over 100 mph into the evening.
Here are some of the most important bursts:
Additionally, winds reached 126 mph at Redfish Pass, 112 mph at Naples Grande Beach Resort and 107 mph near Sanibel Island.
Some gusts exceeded 70 mph in northeast Florida on Thursday, including Daytona Beach. Winds blew at 89 mph into an elevated tower at Kennedy Space Center. Gusts of over 50 mph were recorded in Gainesville and Jacksonville, and gusts of over 30 mph made their way along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts.
Surge
Storm surge inundated many towns in southwest Florida, including Naples, Florida, where more than 6 feet of storm surge flooding was measured, more than any other storm at that gauge location in at least 50 years. The tide gauge has since broken there.
Water levels rise to the top of the first floor of Fort Myers Beach homes during the eye of Hurricane Ian. This tweet shows the view from the second floor of Fort Myers Beach:
In Fort Myers proper, however, the storm surge was over 7 feet at high tide this evening. Previously, the strongest storm surge was 3.36 feet MHHW during Hurricane Gabrielle in 2001.
Meanwhile, the winds are blowing offshore producing a rising tide in Tampa Bay. Water levels are about 8 feet below average near Tampa Harbor and many parts of Tampa Bay were dry for much of Wednesday.
The combination of storm surge and precipitation around high tide sent feet of water through St. Augustine on Thursday, with water entering homes, according to the National Weather Service. St. Augustine firefighters reported that water levels were higher in the city than during Hurricane Matthew in 2016.
precipitation
Extreme rainfall triggered major flooding in parts of central Florida, causing a flash flood emergency for the north side of the Orlando metro area near the Little Wekiva River. Orlando shattered its 24-hour rainfall record, picking up 12.49 inches from 8 a.m. Wednesday to 8 a.m. Thursday, according to weather historian Christopher Burt. Up to 19 inches of rain has already fallen in parts of the state.
Here’s a look at some of the flood reports across Florida:
Heavy rains from Ian’s trail across Florida sent some rivers on the Florida peninsula to major and even record flood levels. Widespread flooding occurred on Thursday September 29 in the greater Orlando metropolitan area.
The Peace River reached a record high from 1933 to Sources of Zolfo, about 60 miles north of Ft. Myers. Record flooding was also recorded in the Little Wekiva River near Altamonte Springs on the north side of Orlando, Shingle Creek in Campbell, and Horse Creek near Arcadia, Florida.
More weather.com:
12 things you might not know about your hurricane forecast
7 things newcomers to Florida should know about hurricane season
Florida Peninsula’s Luck Since Hurricane Irma Won’t Last
Maria Llonch collects her belongings from her house damaged by Hurricane Ian in Pinar del Rio, Cuba, Tuesday, September 27, 2022. (AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa)
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