DC Area Forecast: Ian’s Rains Arrive Today, Persist Through Weekend

A somewhat subjective rating of today’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

6/10: Despite the clouds, we have dry conditions until mid to late afternoon when the #Ian rains start to arrive.

  • Today: Chance of rain mid to late afternoon. Treble: mid 60s.
  • This evening: Rain and breezes increase. Low: low to mid-50s.
  • Tomorrow: Cloudy, windy, humid. Treble: low to mid 60s.
  • Sunday: Rather cloudy with breeze, showers. Treble: Close to 60 to mid-60.

Ian’s leftovers probably bring us a rainy weekend. Slowly and lightly, the rains move in later in the day, with increasing intensity and coverage after sunset. The heaviest and most widespread rains begin this evening, especially around and after midnight. Uneven flooding is possible as the rain waves move in. A few dry moments are also possible. We may keep cloudy and humid conditions into Tuesday, but at least the rain coverage and intensity is not constant or persistent.

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Today (Friday): Any partial morning sun gives way to cloudy skies, likely becoming overcast by early afternoon. Light showers and waves of rain become possible in the middle of the afternoon and especially towards sunset. High temperatures may only reach the mid 60s unless we see more afternoon sun and drier conditions than currently forecast. Rainfall amounts are expected to remain light throughout the day. A few northeasterly gusts near 25 mph are possible late in the day. Confidence: medium-high

This evening: Breezes, showers and waves of rain become more regular and heavier over time. The heaviest rains, which can accumulate up to a rapid inch or more overnight, arrive around midnight and into the wee hours of the morning. Northeast winds blow around 30 mph before dawn. The low to mid 50s are probably the coolest temperatures we observed overnight. Confidence: medium-high

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Tomorrow (Saturday): The rain can be more regular during the morning hours. The intensity should tend to decrease over time, but additional showers cannot be ruled out at any time of the day. The sky will probably remain cloudy. Gusty northeast winds can reach 35 mph once or twice. Rain can amount to another inch in the wettest places, while others don’t see much. High temperatures peak in the low to mid-60s. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow evening: The breezes continue to slowly decrease, like the intensity of the rain. It can be light with intermittent waves of showers. Skies remain mostly cloudy as temperatures bottom out in the low to mid-50s. Confidence: Medium

Sunday: Occasional showers are likely, and possibly a storm. Some waves can be of moderate intensity. The sky is mostly cloudy, with some possible sunny spells. Breezes could pick up around 25 mph, but we’ll watch. High temperatures are also a bit less certain, perhaps as cool as near 60-60s. Confidence: medium

Sunday night: Showers and even a thunderstorm or two are possible. We will have to see when Ian’s residual low center passes closest to our area. Low temperatures can hover in the mid 50s with skies remaining mostly cloudy. Confidence: medium

Breezes and rain intensity can only slowly decrease Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures should be near 60 in the mid-60s as it appears now. This assumes showers, breezes and mostly cloudy skies continue. If Ian slows down, we might get a little more rain than currently forecast. Confidence: low-medium

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