Fiona should get stronger as it moves through several Caribbean islands over the next few days.
Most models place Fiona moving west towards Puerto Rico and Hispaniola before taking a northerly path east of Florida.
Fiona could be very close to hurricane strength as it approaches the southern coast of the Dominican Republic. Hispaniola’s terrain is likely to disrupt Fiona’s circulation, but global patterns suggest Fiona shouldn’t have much trouble reorganizing once over the far southwest Atlantic, according to the Hurricane Center.
Several factors will determine Fiona’s intensity over the next few days and into the next week, including wind shear, dry air, and land impact on the tropical storm.
“There will be a brief window, until Friday, where Fiona may gain a bit more strength as a tropical storm, despite disruptive wind shear,” AccuWeather said meteorologist Rob Richards.
“But beyond Friday, interaction with the increasingly larger islands and higher mountains of the northern Caribbean will likely result in weakening or at least cessation of strengthening.”
AccuWeather forecasters expect wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico and nearby guiding winds to move Fiona north after reaching the Bahamas.
If so, early predictions indicate that Fiona could miss the United States. However, with Fiona still over a week away, weather conditions may change, including a southerly dip of the jet stream.
This could allow Fiona to stroll near the Atlantic coast of the United States next weekend and beyond, AccuWeather forecasters said.
Residents of Florida’s east coast, as well as coastal residents upstate, have been urged to keep a close eye on Fiona’s progress.
Here is the latest update from the NHC as of 11 a.m. on September 16:
Tropical Storm Fiona
- Location: 215 km east of Guadeloupe; 2,559 miles southeast of West Palm Beach
- Maximum wind speed: 50 mph
- Direction: west at 15 mph
- Next notice: 2 p.m.
At 11 a.m., the center of tropical storm Fiona was located 215 km east of Guadeloupe. Fiona is moving west at almost 22 km/h. A westerly motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Sunday, followed by a west-northwesterly and northwesterly turn Sunday and Sunday evening.
On forecast track, Fiona’s center is expected to cross the Leeward Islands tonight, near or just south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday through Sunday, and approach the southern coast of the Dominican Republic Sunday evening. and early Monday.
Data from the Air Force Reserve and NOAA’s Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, with higher gusts. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.
A slight strengthening is expected over the next few days.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for:
- Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat and Anguilla
- Saba and St Eustache
- Guadeloupe, Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin
- Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
- US Virgin Islands
A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
- British Virgin Islands
The National Hurricane Center said additional watches will likely be needed later today.
Spaghetti Patterns for Tropical Storm Fiona
See the latest patterns on where Tropical Storm Fiona could go.
What else is out there and where are they?
Tropical Wave 1: A frontal depression over the western Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles west-northwest of Bermuda is producing showers and disorganized thunderstorms.
Tropical Wave 2: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean are associated with the northern end of a tropical wave.
What is the probability that they will strengthen?
Tropical Wave 1: This depression is forecast to move east to east-southeast at 10 to 15 mph, and development into a tropical cyclone is not expected due to strong winds aloft.
- 48 hour formation chance: low, 10%.
- Chance of formation over 5 days: low, 10%.
Tropical Wave 2: Slow development of this system is possible early next week as it moves northwest to north over the central subtropical Atlantic.
- Chance of formation over 48 hours: low, close to 0%.
- Chance of formation over 5 days: low, 20%.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Tropical Storm Fiona: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Leeward Islands within the warning area by this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area across the Virgin Islands beginning Saturday, then reaching Puerto Rico late Saturday and Saturday evening.
Heavy rain from Fiona will reach the Leeward Islands by this evening, spreading to the British and US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, reaching the Dominican Republic on Sunday and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Monday evening or Tuesday.
This rainfall can produce significant flooding impacts, including flash and urban flooding, as well as mudslides in higher ground areas.
Tropical waves: It is too early at this time to determine if the tropical wave will impact the United States.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue to monitor the tropics and always be prepared during what is expected to be an active hurricane season.
Colorado State University 2-Week Forecast September 15-28
Colorado State University’s hurricane forecast for September 15-28 gives the highest ratings for above normal activity – 50% – with lower ratings for normal activity – 40% – and below normal – 10%.
When is Atlantic hurricane season?
Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
Although the season got off to a slow start, the peak of the season is September 10, with the most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Weather watch and warning issued for your area
Tropical forecast for the next five days
See the National Hurricane Center’s graphical five-day tropical weather forecast below.
Forecast of excessive precipitation
What’s over there?
Systems currently monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
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