Impeachment fallout, Trump endorsements and a major abortion test: What to watch for in Tuesday’s election

The results of some of those races — particularly in Arizona and Washington — may not be known Tuesday night if the competitions are close. Here’s what to watch for as the primary results unfold.

Defining the Senate Battleground

Tuesday’s Republican primaries will finalize some of the last remaining questions on this year’s Senate map — primarily, who will face the Democratic senator from Arizona. Mark Kelly in what will be one of the most competitive senatorial races this cycle.

And in Missouri, voters will choose from a crowded field of Republican candidates vying to replace the retired GOP Sen. Roy Bluntincluding disgraced former Governor Eric Greitens, State Attorney General Eric Schmitt and Rep. Vicky Hartzler.

As Schmitt has taken the lead in recent public polls, Trump issued a last-minute vague endorsement of “ERIC” on Monday evening, effectively amounting to a double endorsement of Greitens and Schmitt.

Although the Red State should be safe for Republicans in November’s Senate race, GOP operatives have long warned that a nomination from Greitens — given his background including allegations of sexual assault and domestic violence – could cost the party a Senate seat.

If Greitens were to win in Tuesday’s primary, Missouri could become a state where Democrats decide to spend big — a strategy that would force Republicans to do the same to maintain their edge.

The Republican Senate primary in Arizona comes down to two candidates: Blake Masters, Peter Thiel’s protege who won Trump’s endorsement in June, and Jim Lamon, a solar energy executive who has invested at least $14 million dollars of its own funds in the race.

Last month’s Masters emerged as a clear frontrunner, according to public polling, although Lamon continued to pour big money into the campaign to keep pace with a Thiel-funded pro-Masters super PAC. Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich, whom Trump disparaged for not helping overturn the 2020 election results, polled in third place in the race.

Voters in Washington state will also advance two candidates from their multiparty primary system. Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley is the only well-funded GOP candidate on the ballot, and the Democratic senator. Patty Murray already started running attack ads against her earlier this summer.

Swing state governors on the ballot

Voters are also holding GOP races for governor in two main battlegrounds: Arizona and Michigan.

The Arizona race fell apart like a number of other GOP gubernatorial primaries this year, with Trump lining up on one side and the state’s top Republicans pushing another candidate.

Trump backed former TV presenter Kari Lake in Arizona’s open primary. Meanwhile, term-limited Governor Doug Ducey, co-chair of the Republican Governors Association, and former Vice President Mike Pence are among those backing former state board member Karrin Taylor Robson in a contentious primary that drew Trump and Pence to the state. Lake has led most recent public polls in the race.

On the Democratic side, Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs was seen as the frontrunner in a primary that also includes former Nogales Mayor Marco Lopez.

In the race to replace Hobbs as the state’s next Chief Electoral Officer, Republicans are about to name state legislator Mark Finchem, a prominent election conspiracy theorist. Trump endorsed Finchem, while Ducey backed ad executive Beau Lane.

Tuesday’s second major gubernatorial primary will be in Michigan, where Republicans are looking for their nominee to take on Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

This competition was one of messiest in recent memory. Leading candidates were kicked off the ballot after signature fraud was discovered on their nomination petitions, and another candidate in the crowded field was arrested by the FBI for his alleged participation in the Jan. 6 insurrection on Capitol Hill. American.

But there, Trump and the establishment reached an apparent detente. Many of the state’s powerful GOP players, including the DeVos family, have backed conservative media personality Tudor Dixon — and Trump followed suit late last week. with late approval.

The first abortion test

Kansas voters will have first chance to directly weigh in on abortion policy at the polls after Supreme Court ruling Dobbs decision, via the state constitutional amendment “Value Them Both” on Tuesday’s ballot.

While the ballot amendment would not create any new restrictions on abortion, it would clear the way for state lawmakers to do so. He was the subject of a intense campaign on both sidesand the results could be close.

Abortion rights supporters and anti-abortion activists see the Kansas ballot initiative as the first of many to come. It is one of five abortion-related ballot measures across the country this year, with more already planned in states across the country for future elections.

The race is also an early setup for the state governor contest. Democratic Governor Laura Kelly is arguably the nation’s most threatened Democratic incumbent, while state Attorney General Derek Schmidt will block the Republican nomination on Tuesday. The results of Tuesday’s ballot measurement could determine some of the central themes of the general election there.

Three pro-impeachment Republicans facing voters

Three of the six pro-impeachment Republicans who have decided to seek re-election will face voters — and the wrath of Trump — on Tuesday.

Most at Risk: Rep. Pierre Meijer (R-Mich.), the only freshman to vote to hold Trump accountable for the Jan. 6 attacks. He faces a tough challenge from Trump-backed John Gibbs, but Meijer has a huge financial advantage. He and his allies spent $2.4 million on ads to support the incumbent.

Gibbs spent just $26,000 on cable and digital ads — but he got surprise air coverage from the House Democratic campaign arm. Democrats are eyeing the seat, which Biden won by 9 points, in the fall, and they controversially mixed up in the primary in hopes that Gibbs would be easier to defeat.

In Washington State, representatives of the GOP. And Newhouse and Jaime Herrera Beuter both are facing Trump-backed challengers in their multiparty primaries – and both have received millions in support from establishment groups. Herrera Beutler and the Winning for Women Action Fund, a group that supports GOP women, together spent five times more on the air than Joe Kent, its main challenger.

Newhouse and his allies invested $1.3 million in TV ads; his top challenger, 2020 gubernatorial nominee Loren Culp, aired none. Muddling the waters are several other non-Trump-endorsed Republican challengers in the mix of the two races.

The three contests will test whether GOP outrage over a year-and-a-half-old impeachment vote can overcome a deluge of pro-incumbent spending on television.

There’s also another major primary to watch: a member-on-member battle in Michigan between Democratic representatives. haley stevens and Andy Levin. The redistricting forced them to reunite, after Levin left behind the new version of his current seat to run against Stevens. The game turned in a proxy war between domestic political forces, with pro-Israel groups spending money on the race and domestic progressives, including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) coming for strain for Levin.

Starting the House Battleground

The two parties will also choose candidates in more than half a dozen swing seats in four states.

In Washington State, several Republicans are battling for second place in the general election with the Democratic representative. Kim Schrier. Top contenders include Jesse Jensen, the 2020 nominee; Reagan Dunn, a former federal prosecutor whose mother previously represented the region in Congress; and Matt Larkin, lawyer and businessman.

In Kansas, Republican Amanda Adkins and Democratic Representative. Sharice Davids are heading for a rematch in a suburban Kansas City seat.

Arizona will finalize matchups for four potentially competitive runs in the fall. A slew of Republicans are vying for the green light to face Democratic Rep. Tom O’Halleran after redistricting turned his huge Northern District into a seat that Trump would have won by 9 points. State Representative Walt Blackman and Trump-endorsed veteran Eli Crane — two election deniers — are the most prominent candidates.

In the Phoenix area, businessman Kelly Cooper and attorney Tanya Wheeless are battling for the chance to take on Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton. In a nearby neighborhood, beleaguered Rep. David Schweikert faces a well-funded primary challenger and several Democrats as well.

And in South Tucson, Republicans are hoping for a victory for Juan Ciscomani, former senior adviser to Gov. Doug Ducey. State Senator Kristen Engel and State Representative Daniel Hernandez are competing on the Democratic side. The seat was vacated by the incumbent Democratic representative. Anne Kirkpatrick.

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